Here we are now having just crossed into the great state of Minnesota. Yes, Minnesota. The consensus at this time is to go after the slight risk for supercell thunderstorms in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
Why the persistence? The long range models show a strong ridge, or “omega block” pattern setting up over the Central US next week, so past Thursday there won’t be much to chase.. Therefore they want to go after whatever they can.
There was debate amongst the crew whether to aim for MN or track south to KS to get in position for tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded its outlook for tomorrow to a “moderate risk” for Kansas and Oklahoma. This is the best likelihood of the week and the models have been consistent in that for days.
The waiting game will likely resume once we halt in Marshall, MN where forecasters will reassess the situation.
When it comes to driving this many miles, Tim has said that can often be the biggest risk for the crew’s safety. It isn’t a tornado, lightning, or wind… It’s how safe they are while in transit. Rest is important given tomorrow’s chase forecast, but it may be compromised given the slight risk they are pursuing today! Aside from that, the prime focus amongst the crew seems to tomorrow’s increasing potential.